Hi folks! It's that time again! The Oscars! Airing! TONIGHT!!!
Ok I wasn’t going to even do this this year. And it’s not because there was a destabilizing, once-in-a-lifetime cataclysm this year (the Meghan and Harry interview). It’s not because I felt that the times are too somber and that it would be in poor taste to focus on something as frivolous as the Oscars. No: the Oscars ARE in fact the most important night of the year, even in a pandemic. And when we’re all 100 feet underwater due to climate catastrophe or if we’re dealing with nuclear fallout, I’ll still be trying to call everyone’s attention back to the Oscars, the thing that truly matters most.
No, the reason I almost didn’t do this is because I get so much mileage out of the pre-Oscars mishegoss. Your Joaquin Pheonixes yelling at a room full or reporters, your Aaron Sorkins saying something off kilter at the BAFTAs. The Oscars isn’t just one night. It’s a whole quarter of lunacy. It’s months of an industry collectively engaging in a battle royale in the hopes that the next day will feature a Hollywood Reporter article that says something like “Netflix Sweeps Oscars: Are Theaters Dead?” and the Netflix stock price will marginally increase for 72 hours.
This year had virtually none of that. A Golden Globes that no one watched, a pre-taped, muted SAGs? What is there to even say? But today my public let me know that Now More Than Ever, an Oscars email is needed and that I, a True American Hero, must answer the call. I got you, babies, I got you. Now I have to warn you: I’ve only seen like 70% of the movies and, again, there isn’t really much to say this year. A ton of movies were pushed back to after the pandemmo and this is a total rush-job written the night before the ceremony. And this is all in service to a new awards show format which already sounds truly insufferable: a three hour “movie” directed by Steven Soderbergh with the occasional distribution of awards. Like, haven’t we experienced enough this last year? But whatever, I’ll do my best. Let’s get into it:
Best Sound:
Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, Soul, Sound of Metal
Should win: Never have I experienced a more immersive soundscape in a film than Sound of Metal, the heart-wrenching story of a musician facing the existential crisis of sudden hearing loss. And that’s because I watched this movie in a cabin with friends who were in a nearby room doing a puzzle and, for whatever reason, requested that I, despite being in a neighboring room, turn the sound all the way down so they could better concentrate on the vital task of fitting pieces together. Yes, I could hardly hear a thing in this movie. And because it was an AirBnB with a Roku-- a UI I’m not entirely familiar with-- I couldn’t figure out how to turn on captions. Indeed, this film really helped me understand the paralyzing confusion of not hearing what’s happening around you.
Will win: Sound of Metal
Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, News of the World, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: The best cinematography I saw this year was in the documentary Some Kind of Heaven, witnessed by no one but me. Every single shot is art. However, among these contenders, I have to give this one to Nomadland, though not for the reasons it is being celebrated. Yes, the lingering shots of expansive landscapes are awe-inspiring, the soft poetry of light, the juxtaposition of vast wilds against the quietude of a contained life. A beauty that oft moved me to tears. But, moreover, having just recently gone on a road trip, we must discuss the interior shots of the van! The footprints of my Jeep Cherokee and Fern’s van aren’t that different. And let me tell you: even with just one rollerboard, two tote bags of dog supplies, a caboodle, and some backseat UGGs for those cold occasions, the car felt packed to the gills! And the front seat? Forget about it! I had a half-eaten bag of muddy buddies, some corn nuts, and twizzlers on the seat for most of the trip. Not appropriate for a feature film at all. I just don’t know how Chloe Zhao did it!
Will win: Nomadland
Best Documentary Feature
Collective, Crip Camp, The Mole Agent, My Octopus Teacher, Time
Should win: The only movie I’ve seen among these is Crip Camp and I thought it was a little overlong. From the sounds of it, Time should win this. But I can tell you what shouldn’t win: it’s that octopus movie. I watched the first 5 minutes and, like an octopus, noped my way out of there:
Perhaps I’m wrong but it sounds like the premise is: man has vague issues he won’t really share with the viewing audience. Man retreats from his family, instead engaging in an emotional affair with an octopus, creepily filming her for a year, and ultimately withholding her EP credit on the film.
Meanwhile Boys State got the shaft even though that movie features, like, 800 arms as opposed to this movie’s pathetic total count of 10 arms.
Will Win: BAFTA and PGA both went for this stupid octopus situation. Or maybe it wasn’t everyone’s favorite but Time split the vote with Crip Camp. Thanks, Obama.
Animated Short
Burrow, Genius Loci, If Anything Happens I Love You, Opera, Yes People
Should Win: FINALLY A CATEGORY WITH STAKES. I actually feel a real way about this. I watched all these shorts and Opera BLEW MY HEAD OFF MY STUPID OCTOPUS BODY. A true art, loved it loved it loved it.
Will Win: UGHHHHHH. If Anything Happens I Love You is a treacly short in which two parents are mourning the loss of a child and despite only being like 8 minutes it feels like forever and spoiler alert: the denouement is a school shooting and it was like scientists got in a lab and concocted the platonic ideal of what would appeal to The Academy. It was overly self-important and hamfisted and I hated it and I wish I hadn’t been born with any of my senses. Even touching the remote to press play was a sensation I wish I could take back.
Best Original Song
Husavik (Eurovision), Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah), Io Si (The Life Ahead), Speak Now (One Night in Miami), Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Should Win: You know who shouldn’t win, the fucking New York Times. Now, the Grey Lady has had her share of media scandals. Remember the Jayson Blair plagiarism scandal? The time that Judith Miller led us into the Iraq War? None of that is as reputation-shattering as this passage:
FIRST OF ALL: Diane Warren has been nominated 12 times for best original song. Like, this could be her Susan Lucci year and we’re gonna just act like there are no big names here? The woman wrote Because You Loved Me, How Do I Live, and I Don’t Wanna Miss A Thing. Cut the shit, NYT!
And then the Eurovision dig. Eurovision was the first movie that didn’t make me want to gouge my eyes out in this pandemmy. It was like the only 90 minutes in the Spring of 2020 when I experienced levity. And Husavik is a legit banger! The emotional crescendo of the movie! But because it’s not prestigious enough, we’re stuck with...
Will Win: Speak Now. Speak Now is apparently favored to win. And, in case you don’t want to listen to the song, I’ll just break down its component lyrical parts: “speak now”: 17 occurences; “listen”: 24 occurrences; and then, like, 4 other words. There. That’s the song.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Pinocchio
Should win: First of all... first of all... whatever Pinocchio is doing is horrifying:
Jesus Christ. It’s like they combined Mask and The Mask.
Then there’s the duo of Ma Rainey and Hillbilly Elegy, both being lauded for the way they were able to make their main characters look so haggard. People are like, wow, can you believe they were able to fuck up Viola Davis’ makeup like this? Can you believe they made Glenn Close and Amy Adams look like this?
Bitch, yes I can believe it because I woke up every single day of this pandemmo looking just like that! Should I write up an Oscars speech? I’d like to thank: putting on “boredom makeup” and giving too few fucks to wash it off before bed. I’d like to thank the oversized t-shirt which housed me for several weeks at a time without being washed. I’d like to thank bras for being a total afterthought. I’d like to thank my teacher, Octopus, for showing me it’s ok to languish in wet garbage.
Then there’s Mank which.... Lol this movie is being nominated because I guess The Academy thinks they did a good job making a 63-year-old look like a 44-year-old? I can only assume that David Fincher told the casting director “he shouldn’t be a very old man,” who then misheard and was like “got it. Gary Oldman.” And then contracts were signed and it was too late to go back to the drawing board. Just as a point of comparison, check out Gary next to this stock photo on the right of a man, age 40-44. Not so sure they nailed the makeup!
Anyway, that leaves Emma, which should win for making hair go loopdy-loop:
Will win: Ma Rainey.
Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: I thought Minari was a kind of perfect screenplay. There was nothing bloated, nothing hamfisted, everything felt so true to life and fully dimensional. This one’s an easy one for me. Minari was beautifully written....
But is it the TRUE ART that only Aaron Sorkin can create? I’m afraid there’s only one auteur brave enough to write as sorkinly as Aaron Sorkin. Consider this scene from The Newsroom if you need proof of Aaron Sorkin’s singular abilities to Sorkin up the joint. Literally the most bananas scene in film/TV of all time.
Will win: Promising Youn--- I can’t even type it. I hated this movie the most of any movie this year. I hated the main character. I didn’t know what I was supposed to learn. It felt like a slog. There was no B-plot. But the most grievous sin of all: how can you waste Jennifer Coolidge like that? Now granted, the way I watched this movie wasn’t... ideal. It was via a google hangouts screenshare wherein the sound was delayed and I could only really see every third frame. Maybe it would have been better if I had watched it the way I usually take in films: as background noise while online shopping on my phone... the way Scorsese intended.
Visual Effects
Love and Monsters, The Midnight Sky, Mulan, The One and Only Ivan, Tenet
Should win: y’all, what the fuck is this category? What in the actual fuck? What are these movies? The One and Only Ivan? Am I alone in never hearing about this before? Anyway Tenet should and will win. Sources say that the first cut of the movie was just Christopher Nolan preening in a mirror for three hours and just repeating “Nolan, you’ve done it again!” When Warner Bros got the cut they were totally panicked. So to buy some time, they initiated a global pandemic (they chose a bat as the initial vector because Warner Bros owns the intellectual property to Batman and figured they could launch a crossover film down the road). With all press focused on the pandrama, they were able to quietly CGI a totally new film. All the dialogue is ADR’d from the actors’ homes which is why you can’t really hear what people are saying. Put a booming soundtrack atop the whole thing and you have another Nolan hit.
Will win: Warner Bros Global Pandemic Presents: Tenet
Best Costume Design
Emma, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Mulan, Pinocchio
Should win: Alan Kim for his award circuit looks:
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Weather-Inappropriate Clothing
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Should win: I’m really on the fence here because obviously Yuh-Jung Youn was incredible as Cool Nana. But... we need to think about the conditions under which everyone was working. Assumedly Yuh-Jung Youn went into hair and makeup every day and then read a book in her trailer until call time. Maria Bakalova on the other hand had to portray a full character transformation in the most insane of situations. She had to do her acting under threat of being, like, hauled out by security in every scene. She had to build an instant rapport with someone who somehow takes the award for most ghoulish creature in the Trump Administration. Like, close your eyes and think real hard... if we REALLY needed to, we could at least attempt to do what Yuh-Jung Youn did. I don’t think I could ever pull off what Maria Bakalova did. I don’t even know if I’m suggesting she win an Oscar. I guess I’m suggesting she win a gift certificate for free therapy at the very least.
Will win: This one’s pretty easy. Yuh-Jung Youn has all the momentum right now.
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Leslie Odom Jr (One Night in Miami), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Should win: don’t hate me but I didn’t watch Judas and the Black Messiah. The heavier the film, the more I put it off. The Father will, in fact, never be watched by me, no thank you. So I’m just gonna parrot what I hear other pundits say: Daniel Kaluuya turned out a fiery performance but also Lakeith turned in a more subtly impactful performance but also this is category fraud so maybe Paul Raci should win.
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya is a lock and let’s give it to him because his Golden Globes speech was marred by the HFPA technical crew not knowing their ass from their elbow.
Best Actress
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Will win: ladies and gentleman, THIS is the category everyone will be watching. This is the closest race in recent memory. It truly is anyone’s for the taking. I’ve never seen such a split before. Every news outlet is predicting something different, with slight leads by Viola Davis, Frances McDormand, and Carey Mulligan. I am scared to even write anything. When in doubt I typically go with the SAG winner (Viola). There could be a split vote though which might favor Andra Day. Literally it could be any of them (except for Vanessa Kirby --sorry, girl). Ummmm... I dunno! I’m going with Viola 60%, Frances 40%.
Should win: Who SHOULD win? Han Ye-ri played Monica Yi in Minari and it was the best lady acting I’ve seen this year. Maybe if she was an octopus the academy would pay attention. But of the women nominated, I’d give this one to Viola Davis.
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins, Gary Oldman, Steven Yeun
Should win: Ugh this category is too stacked, except for Gary Oldman. Yes, I would be happy to see anyone win, except for Gary Oldman. What a series of titanic performances, except for Gary Oldman. They all should collectively win, except for Gary Oldman. I'll give the slight edge to Anthony Hopkins whose performance is so devastating in clips so as to encourage me to never watch The Father ever ever ever.
Will win: Chadwick Boseman, no question. And we will all cry.
Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), David Fincher (Mank), Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
Should win: I’m on the fence here because Minari and Nomadland are both really spectacular directorial efforts. Minari is autobiographical without being self-absorbed. It doesn’t have a single emotional false step and it’s quiet and self-assured throughout. Nomadland perfectly intertwines professional and nonprofessional performances. It’s a highwire act, stealthily filmed while Chloe Zhao had, like, a few hours off between movies. I give this to Chloe mostly because in the times I’ve been between gigs I haven’t managed to do anything but watch reality TV and scuttle around my house like an octopus.
Will win: Chloe Zhao. Sorry, David Fincher. Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out.
Best Picture
The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Promising Young Woman, Nomadland, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: This year I’m really split between Minari and Nomadland. Both are so eloquent, so lyrical, so personal and yet so large in scope. I feel... I feel so torn. My heart is at war with itself! It’s just like this. That’s how I feel!
I’m going to go on the basis of cry points. I cried in Minari for about 8 minutes and I cried in Nomadland for about 12 minutes. Nomadland takes it.
Will win: Nomadland. Everyone is reading into Trial of Chicago 7 taking the ensemble award at the SAGs like that means something. Yeah: it meant that there was an actual ensemble. Nomadland is just a woman, her van, her beets, and her portable toilet. I wouldn’t look too much into it. I think this is Nomadland’s year.
Quick rundown of other winners:
Adapted Screenplay: The Father
Animated Feature: Soul (watch out for: Wolfwalkers potential surprise upset)
Film Editing: Sound of Metal
Score: Soul
International Feature: Another Round
Production Design: Mank
Documentary Short: Everyone is split but the slight odds are in favor of A Love Song for Latasha
Live Action Short: Two Distant Strangers
Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. That’s all for this year! Let's all just sit tight and try to get through this devastating time. I'm not talking about the end of the pandemic. I'm specifically talking about whatever Steven Soderbergh is going to do to us tomorrow. See ya next year at the real Oscars!!